[SydPhil] Notification: Branden Fitelson *NOTE TIME* @ Wed 21 Aug 2019 11:00 - 13:00 (AEST) (Current Projects)

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Tue Aug 20 10:59:53 AEST 2019

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Title: Branden Fitelson *NOTE TIME*

TITLE.  "How to model the probabilities of conditionals"
ABSTRACT.  David Lewis (and others) have famously argued against Adams's  
Thesis (that the probability of a conditional is the conditional  
probability of its consequent, given it antecedent) by proving  
various "triviality results."  In this paper, I argue for two theses -- one  
negative and one positive. The negative thesis is that the "triviality  
results" do not support the rejection of Adams's Thesis, because  
Lewisian "triviality based" arguments against Adams's Thesis rest on an  
implausibly strong understanding of what it takes for some credal  
constraint to be a rational requirement (an understanding which Lewis  
himself later abandoned in other contexts).  The positive thesis is that  
there is a simple (and plausible) way of modeling the probabilities of  
conditionals, which (a) obeys Adams's Thesis, and (b) avoids all of the  
existing triviality results.
When: Wed 21 Aug 2019 11:00 – 13:00 Eastern Australia Time - Sydney
Calendar: Current Projects
     * Kristie Miller- creator

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