[SydPhil] MQ Philosophy Talk: Tuesday, 27 March, 13:00, Blackshield room: Brian Hedden (Sydney)

Michael Olson michael.olson at mq.edu.au
Fri Mar 23 08:24:23 AEDT 2018

Hindsight Bias is not a Bias
Brian Hedden (Sydney)

Date: 27 March
Time: 13:00-14:00
Venue: Blackshield Room, W3A (6 First Walk) 501*
All welcome

*Note the changing venues this semester

Abstract: Hindsight bias is the phenomenon of being more confident that some body of evidence supports a hypothesis when one knows that the hypothesis is true, than when one doesn't. Psychologists tell us both that we often display hindsight bias, and that this is irrational. After all, evidence can be misleading, and the fact that the hypothesis is true doesn't affect whether it was supported by the evidence available ex ante. Hindsight bias is of particular concern in tort lawsuits, where jurors may be asked to determine negligence, which requires judging what would have been reasonable to believe based on the evidence available at the time, before the outcome became know. Legal scholars worry that hindsight bias makes jurors ill-suited to accurately determine negligence. I argue that hindsight bias is consistent with, and often required by, ideal rationality. In particular, the fact that some hypothesis is true gives evidence about relations of evidential support. I also connect hindsight bias with current debates about the role of higher-order evidence.

Contact: Adam Hochman (adam.hochman at mq.edu.au<mailto:adam.hochman at mq.edu.au>) or Mike Olson (michael.olson at mq.edu.au<mailto:michael.olson at mq.edu.au>)

A google calendar with details of other events in this series is available here<https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/mh8JCXLKZoikPjr5T6j4ah?domain=michael-olson.com>.


Dr Michael Olson
Lecturer, Modern European Philosophy

Department of Philosophy  |   2nd Floor, Australian Hearing Hub
Macquarie University, NSW 2109, Australia

T: +61 2 9850 6895<tel:%2B61%202%209850%206895>  |  arts.mq.edu.au<http://arts.mq.edu.au/>  |  www.michael-olson.com<https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/WA6aCYWL1vijWmB1fGi8kw?domain=michael-olson.com>

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