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</head><body class="body"><span itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/InformAction"><span style="display:none" itemprop="about" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Thing/Notification"><meta itemprop="description" content="Notification"/></span><span itemprop="object" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Event"><meta itemprop="eventStatus" content="http://schema.org/EventScheduled"/><span itemprop="publisher" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Organization"><meta itemprop="name" content="Google Calendar"/></span><meta itemprop="eventId/googleCalendar" content="5n1pbtvc29m68hs4hhbbqmi1ps"/><span style="display: none; font-size: 1px; color: #fff; line-height: 1px; height: 0; max-height: 0; width: 0; max-width: 0; opacity: 0; overflow: hidden;" itemprop="name">Alan Hajek, "Consequentialism, Cluelessness, Clumsiness, and Counterfactuals"</span><meta itemprop="url" content="https://calendar.google.com/calendar/r?eid=NW4xcGJ0dmMyOW02OGhzNGhoYmJxbWkxcHMgMm1lN2M3ZnIzb21wbDRyaHZrcG1sYTUzNjhAZw&es=1"/><span aria-hidden="true"><time itemprop="startDate" datetime="20221012T043000Z"></time><time itemprop="endDate" datetime="20221012T060000Z"></time></span><div style="display: none; font-size: 1px; color: #fff; line-height: 1px; height: 0; max-height: 0; width: 0; max-width: 0; opacity: 0; overflow: hidden;">Philosophy Seminar RoomSimulcast via Zoom: https://uni-sydney.zoom.us/j/87937027507Abstract: According to objective consequentialism, the morally right action is the one that has the be</div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" align="center" style="width:100%;" class="body-container"><tbody><tr><td style="" class="" align="left"><!--[if mso | IE]><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation"><tr><td height="16" style="height:16px;"><![endif]--><div style="height:16px;" aria-hidden="true"> </div><!--[if mso | IE]></td></tr></table><![endif]--><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" align="center" style="width:100%;" class=""><tbody><tr><td style="background-color: #e8f0fe;;color: #1a73e8;padding: 12px 32px; border-radius: 8px;font-family: Roboto, sans-serif;font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px;text-align: left;" class="info-bar-inner"><span style="font-weight: 700;">You have an upcoming event</span></td></tr></tbody></table><!--[if mso | IE]><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation"><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px;"><![endif]--><div style="height:12px;" aria-hidden="true"> </div><!--[if mso | IE]></td></tr></table><![endif]--><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" align="center" style="width:100%;" class=""><tbody><tr><td style="border: solid 1px #dadce0; border-radius: 8px; direction: rtl; font-size: 0; padding: 24px 32px; text-align: left; vertical-align: top;" class="main-container-inner"><!--[if mso | IE]><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation"><tr><![endif]--><div class="" style="font-size: 13px; text-align: left; direction: ltr; display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 100%;overflow: hidden; word-wrap: break-word;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" width="100%" class="main-column-table-ltr" style="padding-right: 32px; padding-left: 0;;table-layout: fixed;"><tbody><tr><td class="main-column-td" style="padding:0; vertical-align:top;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" width="100%" style="table-layout: fixed;"><tr><td style="font-size: 0; padding: 0; text-align: left; word-break: break-word;;padding-bottom:2px;"><div style="font-family: 'Google Sans', Roboto, sans-serif;font-weight: 400; font-size: 22px; line-height: 28px;color: #3c4043; text-decoration: none;" class="primary-text" role="presentation"><span itemprop="name">Alan Hajek, "Consequentialism, Cluelessness, Clumsiness, and Counterfactuals"</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="font-size: 0; padding: 0; text-align: left; word-break: break-word;;padding-bottom:24px;"><div style="font-family: Roboto, sans-serif;font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; letter-spacing: 0.2px;color: #3c4043; text-decoration: none;" class="primary-text" role="presentation"><span aria-hidden="true"><time itemprop="startDate" datetime="20221012T043000Z"></time><time itemprop="endDate" datetime="20221012T060000Z"></time></span><span>Wednesday 12 Oct 2022 ⋅ 15:30 – 17:00 (Eastern Australia Time - Sydney)</span></div></td></tr><tr><td style="font-size: 0; padding: 0; text-align: left; word-break: break-word;;padding-bottom:24px;"><div style="font-family: Roboto, sans-serif;font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; letter-spacing: 0.2px;color: #3c4043; text-decoration: none;" class="primary-text" role="presentation"><span><u></u>Philosophy Seminar Room<br>Simulcast via Zoom: <u><a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/NcYZCJyBrGf8946PWizxGJt?domain=google.com" target="_blank">https://uni-sydney.zoom.us/j/87937027507</a></u><u></u><br><u></u><br><u></u><br><u></u>Abstract: <u></u><br><u></u><br><u></u><br><u></u><p>According to objective consequentialism, the morally right action is the one that <i>has the best consequences</i>. (These are not just the immediate consequences of the actions, but the <i>long-term</i> consequences, perhaps until the end of history.) This account glides easily off the tongue—so easily that one may not notice that on one understanding it makes no sense, and on another understanding, it has a startling metaphysical presupposition concerning counterfactuals. I will bring this presupposition into relief. Objective consequentialism has faced various objections, including the problem of “cluelessness”: we have no idea what most of the consequences of our actions will be. I think that objective consequentialism has a far worse problem: its very foundations are highly dubious. Even granting those foundations, a worse problem than cluelessness remains, which I call “clumsiness”. Moreover, I think that these problems quickly generalise to a number of other moral theories. But the point is most easily made for objective consequentialism, so I will focus largely on it.</p><p>I will consider three ways that consequentialism might be improved:</p><p>1) Appeal instead to <i>short-term</i> consequences of actions;</p><p>2) Understand consequences with <i>objective probabilities</i>;</p><p>3) Understand consequences with <i>subjective/evidential probabilities</i>.</p><p>Subjective probabilities may be rationally constrained or not constrained by evidential probabilities. I will canvas a leading candidate for such a constraint: the principle of indifference. I will argue that it faces serious problems besides the well-known ones. But if the probabilities are not constrained, then subjective consequentialism does not deserve its title as a theory of <i>moral</i> action. I will consider another way in which they may be constrained: by objective probabilities. But even here, there be dragons.</p><u></u></span><meta itemprop="description" content="Philosophy Seminar RoomSimulcast via Zoom: https://uni-sydney.zoom.us/j/87937027507Abstract: According to objective consequentialism, the morally right action is the one that has the best consequences. (These are not just the immediate consequences of the actions, but the long-term consequences, perhaps until the end of history.) This account glides easily off the tongue—so easily that one may not notice that on one understanding it makes no sense, and on another understanding, it has a startling metaphysical presupposition concerning counterfactuals. I will bring this presupposition into relief. Objective consequentialism has faced various objections, including the problem of “cluelessness”: we have no idea what most of the consequences of our actions will be. I think that objective consequentialism has a far worse problem: its very foundations are highly dubious. Even granting those foundations, a worse problem than cluelessness remains, which I call “clumsiness”. Moreover, I think that these problems quickly generalise to a number of other moral theories. But the point is most easily made for objective consequentialism, so I will focus largely on it.I will consider three ways that consequentialism might be improved:1) Appeal instead to short-term consequences of actions;2) Understand consequences with objective probabilities;3) Understand consequences with subjective/evidential probabilities.Subjective probabilities may be rationally constrained or not constrained by evidential probabilities. I will canvas a leading candidate for such a constraint: the principle of indifference. I will argue that it faces serious problems besides the well-known ones. But if the probabilities are not constrained, then subjective consequentialism does not deserve its title as a theory of moral action. I will consider another way in which they may be constrained: by objective probabilities. But even here, there be dragons."/></div></td></tr><tr><td style="font-size: 0; padding: 0; text-align: left; word-break: break-word;;padding-bottom:24px;"><div style="font-family: Roboto, sans-serif;font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; letter-spacing: 0.2px;color: #3c4043; text-decoration: none;" class="primary-text" role="presentation"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="padding-bottom: 4px;"><tr><td><h2 class="primary-text" style="font-size: 14px;color: #3c4043; text-decoration: none;font-weight: 700;-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;margin: 0; padding: 0;">Guests</h2></td></tr></table><div style="padding-bottom: 4px; text-align: left;;color: #3c4042;"></div><a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/77XaCK1DvKTq7AX0ysAb-aw?domain=calendar.google.com" style="display: inline-block;;color: #1a73e8; text-decoration: none;font-weight: 700;" target="_blank" class="accent-text underline-on-hover">View all event details</a></div></td></tr></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><!--[if mso | IE]></tr></table><![endif]--></td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" align="center" style="width:100%;" class=""><tbody><tr><td style="font-size: 0; padding: 0; text-align: left; word-break: break-word;;padding:4px 12px;" class="" align="left"><div class="secondary-text" style="color: #70757a; text-decoration: none;font-family: Roboto, sans-serif;font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; mso-line-height-rule: exactly; text-align: left;"><p>Invitation from <a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/GUpDCE8wmrtW4AvK8cNd0iY?domain=calendar.google.com/" class="accent-text underline-on-hover" style="font-family: Roboto, sans-serif;font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;;color: #1a73e8; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Google Calendar</a></p><p>You are receiving this email because you are subscribed to Calendar notifications. To stop receiving these emails, go to <a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/RcrpCL7EwMfPBoG5DUjDrSh?domain=calendar.google.com" class="accent-text underline-on-hover" style="font-family: Roboto, sans-serif;font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;;color: #1a73e8; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Calendar settings</a>, select this calendar and change ’Other notifications’.</p><p>Forwarding this invitation could allow any recipient to send a response to the organiser, be added to the guest list, invite others regardless of their own invitation status or modify your RSVP. <a class="accent-text underline-on-hover" style="font-family: Roboto, sans-serif;font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;;color: #1a73e8; text-decoration: none;" href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/zb8UCGv0oyCJ3yDoNs7Zalo?domain=support.google.com">Learn more</a></p></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></span></span></body></html>