[Limdep Nlogit List] Interpretation of Random coefficients ordered logit parameters

[Achilleas' gmail]

Dear all,

 

I'm estimating a Random Coefficients  Ordered Logit Model with Y an ordered
variable and X1 and X2 independent dummy vars: 

 

SETPANEL; GROUP=ID; PDS=ROUNDS $

ORDERED ; PANEL ; Lhs = Y

; Rhs = ONE, X1, X2

; MODEL= LOGIT $

ORDERED  ; PANEL; Lhs = Y

; Rhs = one, X1, X2

; RPM 

; par

; Fcn = one(n), X1(n), X2(n)

; HALTON 

; MODEL= LOGIT $

 

My results are as follows: 

 

        |Means for random parameters

Constant|    8.33434***      .85987     9.69  .0000     6.64903  10.01966

  X1    |     .12776         .32251      .40  .6920     -.50436    .75988

  X2    |    -.03393         .33030     -.10  .9182     -.68131    .61344

        |Scale parameters for dists. of random parameters

Constant|    3.26244***      .22798    14.31  .0000     2.81560   3.70927

  X1    |     .62482***      .21928     2.85  .0044      .19503   1.05460

  X2    |     .78015***      .22758     3.43  .0006      .33409   1.22621

 

My intuition is that for the X's, the results of the unconditional estimates
mean that their effect is non-significant (i.e. zero) on aggregate but with
strong individual variability (i.e. showing that for some individuals it is
different from zero).

 

However, when I look at the individual specific (conditional) estimates, I
find a strong indication of their effect being zero for all (i.e. confidence
intervals for all individuals are way far from zero on both ends) 

 

Is my interpretation mistaken?  And if not, how I can possibly explain the
different conclusions I get from conditional vs unconditional estimates? 

 

Thank you,

 

Achilleas